Like conventional stock,
futures contracts
can be sold even when the seller does not yet
own any of the commodity. A contract to sell,
say, 15,000 pounds of FCOJ at $1.50 per pound in
February merely indicates the seller's
obligation to provide and the buyer's obligation
to purchase the product at the specified price
and time. It does not matter how or where the
seller gets the product, as long as, one way or
another, he is able to deliver it at that price
at that time, even if it results in a sale at a
loss to him. This type of sale is called a
short
or short selling.
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Six Steps |
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In this case, Winthorpe and Valentine
short or
sell IOUs FCOJ futures at $1.42
per pound, a price inflated by the Dukes
themselves. When the price falls — first
as a result of Winthorpe and Valentine's eager
selling, then to a much greater degree upon the
release of the real crop report
indicating a good harvest — Winthorpe and
Valentine cover or buy back
futures for prices between $0.46 and $0.29
per pound. Thus, for every futures contract they
had previously sold at about $1.42, they buy
back for only $0.46 to $0.29, resulting in a
profit of $0.96 to $1.13 per pound, or about
$14,000 to $17,000 per contract (15,000 lbs. per
contract).
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Short Selling in the FCOJ Market |
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In the futures market, the value of the
contracts you can purchase is limited by the
balance of your margin account. With a typical
requirement of 4%, you can purchase roughly 25
times the balance of your margin account. Though
it is not stated in the movie exactly how much
they make, if they invested roughly $500,000
from a combination of Winthorpe/Valentine's
investment, the Dukes' money from buying the
"fake" report from a fake Clarence Beeks, and
Coleman's and Ophelia's savings, they would have
turned it into over $10 million. It is strongly
implied that they purchased additional futures
on margin and
made dozens (or hundreds) of millions more,
since a lesser amount would not bankrupt the
Dukes.
When it turns out that the leaked report they
were given was fraudulent and the true report is
revealed, the price begins to plummet before the
Dukes are able to sell off their contracts. This
leaves them with an obligation to buy millions
of pounds of FCOJ at a price more than a dollar
per pound higher than they can sell them for,
bankrupting them. The Dukes are also trading on
margin, in order to magnify their profits (or
losses, as it turns out). The first words that
the exchange representative says to them after
their disastrous trading session are "Margin
call, gentlemen," requiring them to
deposit more money with the exchange to cover
their open loss-making position. Randolph
whines, "You know perfectly well that we don't
have $394 million in cash!" Since their open
position is hundreds of millions of dollars in
the red, leaving no further margin to deposit,
they are effectively ruined.
The $1.13 per pound price change on FCOJ
futures that generated Winthorpe and Valentine's
huge profit would be unlikely in the real FCOJ
futures market. The exchange that houses the
FCOJ futures trading imposes a daily limit of 10
cents per pound on the price movement of the
near month contract from its previous day's
settlement price. Most commodities futures
contracts have daily limits. After the FCOJ
price is 10 cents away from the prior settlement
price, trading is halted and the market is
referred to as "limit up" or "limit
down". Trading reopens if prices are
again within the limit, and the next day the
price can change 10 cents again. The price limit
can be widened under certain market conditions.